Rants & Raves
(Don Chance)
Let History (and Historians) be the Judge: Not!
First
of all, let us take note that analysis of historical decisions benefits from
hindsight. When one says that George
Washington should not have done this, or Harry Truman should have done that,
the person providing the opinion benefits from knowledge of the course of
events that follows the decision.
Typically, such opinion-givers try to position themselves in the same
situation as the decision –maker and act as if given the same set of
information, the opinion-giver would have made the alternative decision, which
as history purportedly shows, would have led to a better outcome.
For
example, a general who divides his somewhat powerful and cohesive army into two
individually weaker units and gets one or both units obliterated will be
criticized. Such was the case with
Colonel George Armstrong Custer, who lost his unit and his life, albeit the
other unit survived. General George
Meade was criticized for not pursuing Robert E. Lee’s Army of Northern
Virginia, following Meade’s decisive victory at Gettysburg. Many historians claim that Meade could have
potentially ended the war by destroying Lee’s weakened army as it hobbled its
way back over the Mason-Dixon line.
President George Bush was, of course, highly criticized for starting a
war with Iraq, based on the premise that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction,
which was ultimately found not to be true.
But a
little logic shows that these criticisms are based on naivety, if not pathetic
political motivations, the latter to weaken a leader or candidate. In order to understand why this is true, we
have to recognize that all decisions can be classified into two categories. One is called influential and the other, atomistic. Influential decisions are those in which the
decision that is made alters the course of history. Atomistic decisions are those in which
whatever decision is made does not alter the course of history. Let us look at the latter first.
With
an atomistic decision, the decision make does not have sufficient power to
influence the course of events that follows the decision. For example, suppose an investor who owns a
stock decides to sell it. Unless that
investor is Warren Buffett or some other very large investor, the sale of the
stock does not affect the future price.
If the investor sells the stock and it goes up, one can say that it
would have gone up had he held on to it.
There is no question that the whatever decision was made, the future
course of events was not altered by that decision.
Now
let us consider the influential decision.
This is one where the future course of event is affected by the decision
that is made. For example, when General Meade
let the Confederate Army retreat back to Virginia, that decision determined the
course of events. The war went on almost
two more years, and Meade took some of the blame for that. Suppose Meade had purposed Lee’s Army, which
was severely shattered but hardly dead.
One might even argue that the Southern army was a wounded animal. It is not inconceivable that on better
terrain, perhaps on its own soil that lay just a few miles south, Lee’s army
would have annihilated Meade’s army and prolonged the war even more. Lee was arguably a far more brilliant officer
than Meade. He had won numerous battles
before and some after Gettysburg. Brash
historians say “no way that would have happened,” but what do they know? Meade obviously had reasons for not pursuing
Lee. His own army had sustained a
casualty rate of almost 25%, which in many battles means losing. So, how do we know that his pursuit of Lee
would have meant a Union victory and the end of the Confederate Army forever. We do not.
George
Bush took enormous criticism for going after Iraq over its purported weapons of
mass destruction. Of course, we know
that U. S troops went into Iraq, conquered Saddam Hussein’s army, and found no
WMD. From that point forward, Bush,
Powell, Rice, and all Republicans were viewed as having no credibility. To this day, people talk about the wasted war
in Iraq. Talk is cheap, very cheap. And the people who do this talk are either
incredibly stupid or they are really smart but let their political motivations
overcome their capacity for thinking logically.
These
critics say that we went into Iraq under false pretenses. But they fail to realize that this decision
was an influential one. It determined
the future course of events. Saddam
Hussein’s brutalizing regime does not exist today, but critics argue that out
of those ashes came ISIS. But to
criticize the war in Iraq is to argue that had the war not occurred, the
situation in Iraq would have been better today or at least no worse with absolute certainty. That is a groundless conclusion. The hypothetical consequences of the U. S.
not going into Iraq might have been better, but there is plenty of reason to
believe they might have been worse. Much
worse. I am not saying they would have
for certain. I am not making that kind
of mistake for certain.
It is
impossible to say that had the war in Iraq not occurred, the situation would be
more peaceful or tolerably stable than it is today. There are hundreds, perhaps thousands of
scenarios that could have played out had the war in Iraq not occurred. To presume knowledge of the future course of
events by a hypothetical altering of a decision is either the height of idiocy
or the depths of pathetic and shameless political maneuvering.
Some
wars have been said to be good wars.
Perhaps the good wars include the American Revolution and World War
II. Let us take the American
Revolution. Most Americans agree that
this war was a just war. These British
subjects won their freedom and established the United States of America. But how do we know that the United States of
America might not have been founded perhaps a few years if not decades letter
through negotiation and not bloodshed? After
all, Canada, Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore, and New Zealand and a number of other British
colonies earned their freedom from the King without fighting a major war. Americans fought a war in which about 10,000 of
them died. About 30 years later, they fought
yet another war against the same enemy in which almost 7,000 Americans
died. No one seems to question whether
perhaps a few more years of taxation without representation might have saved
some lives and still led to freedom as it did for virtually every single colony
of the British Commonwealth. It was a
just war, historians and ordinary people say.
What
about World War II? Surely it was
justified to defeat the Axis powers. But
how do we know that these regimes might not have crumbled internally. We know in particular that there were
internal efforts to assassinate Hitler.
Had the U. S. not joined the war, German military leaders might have
been able to focus their attention on eliminating Hitler. They might have succeeded early on. And six million Jews might not have been
exterminated, not to mention millions of military and civilian deaths avoided. Japan and Germany did declare war on the
United States, but a declaration of war does not mean that a country must be
anything more than defensive.
In
short, there is no way to say that World War II was a good war. We cannot be sure what would have happened
had the U. S. not fought it. And anyone
that tells you they know what the course of events would be if the U. S. had
not fought the war is either stupid, lying, or politically motivated.
So,
the next time you hear a historian, politician, journalist or critic make such
statements, ask yourself whether the decision was an influential or atomistic
one. If it is the former, dismiss the
criticism completely. No one can
describe the course of future events had an influential decision been made the
other way. If the decision is atomistic,
you might be able to say that the alternative would have led to a better
outcome, but there is no guarantee that without the benefit of hindsight, the
critic would have made the alternative decision. Again, the critic is probably lying or
politically motivated.
The
title of this rant refers to the expression, “let history be the judge.” This phrase tends to mean that over time
historians and the public will decide whether a decision was the right
one. I believe my arguments should be
convincing. If the decision is of the
influential type, no one can say what the course of events would have been had
the alternative decision been made. If
the decision is atomistic, one can indeed say that the alternative decision
might have led to a more favorable outcome, though that means no more than the
critic has benefitted from the hindsight of observing the course of future
events and either lying about whether he would have made the alternative
decision or pathetically worse, saying what he says for political
purposes. Or maybe the critic is just
plain stupid.